Forecast of PV Installation in 2021

From the perspective of module price dynamics, 2021 is not only a special year, but also the first year in the history of modern photovoltaic industry in which China's photovoltaic demand growth is equal to the global average. In the past few years, the growth of global photovoltaic market is based on the dynamic changes between China and other markets. When China's growth is strong, the growth of other markets decreases, and vice versa --a pattern closely related to the supply chain.

In 2021, we expect growth in most markets. However, this distributed growth can not eliminate the dominant position of Chinese mainland and the United States in global demand by increasing more than half of the world's PV capacity. The other eight of the world's 10 largest markets together will account for only 25% of global demand, compared with 40% in 2019. In addition, 10% is expected to come from another 10 markets.

This means that we are seeing a parallel integration and differentiation. China and the United States continue to consolidate their positions, while more and smaller markets account for the remaining demand. In other words, by 2021, we expect 55 markets to generate between 100 MW and 999 MW a year, compared with 37 in 2019. We don't expect any significant changes in the top PV markets.

source:IHS Markit

In 2020, India will be the solar market most affected by the covid-19 epidemic, with the installation volume more than half of that in 2019. Developers now have to do everything they can to complete these delayed solar PV projects by 2021, which could make India the third largest market in the world once again - unless it is hindered by persistently high component prices. Among the other leading PV markets, we expect Australia to overtake Japan and Spain to overtake Germany again. We also believe that France will replace South Korea, which ranks tenth.

In 2021, we will pay close attention to emerging solar markets such as Colombia, Peru, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Zambia, Thailand, Philippines and Malaysia. Bidding will continue to be the main driver of the emerging solar market, but there will be more and more power purchase agreement activities, and the installed capacity of commercial and industrial solar photovoltaic will also rise.

IHS Markit expects the world's new photovoltaic power generation to reach 158gw in 2021.